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Reports of a possible change after the next election have put the UK state pension guarantee back in focus, though no change has been announced.
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Speculation has resurfaced that the UK government could end the state pension triple lock after the next general election to help fund a social-care plan. No change has been announced, and Labour has said it will keep the guarantee until the end of the current Parliament. [1]
The triple lock determines the pension increase each April using the highest of three measures: the previous September’s CPI inflation rate, growth in average UK earnings from May to July, or 2.5%. Since April 2026, the full new state pension has been £241.30 a week, while the old basic state pension has been £184.90 a week. Individual payments can differ; some people on the old basic pension also receive an additional state pension. [1]
The cost of the guarantee is part of the discussion. The BBC reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast in July 2025 that its annual cost would reach £15.5bn by 2030. That is distinct from the overall state pension bill, which the BBC puts at £138bn. [1]
For the April 2027 increase, the BBC says wage growth of 3.9% is likely to be the deciding measure. That would take the full new pension to £250.70 a week and the old basic pension to £192.10 a week. The government has yet to confirm the rise. [1]
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