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The Dutch military intelligence chief says Russia shows no current intent to fight Nato soon after the Ukraine war, but warns that, under the most favourable circumstances for Russia, its armed forces could be ready for a small-scale conflict with Nato in slightly less than a year after the war ends.
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Peter Reesink, director of the Netherlands’ military intelligence service, told a briefing in the Dutch House of Representatives that the service currently saw no Russian intention to start a conflict with Nato soon after the war in Ukraine ends, ANP reported on 30 September. [1]
Reesink drew a distinction between intention and capability. He warned that Russia’s armed forces could be ready for a small-scale conflict with Nato in slightly less than a year *after the war ends*. He said Russia could move that quickly only under the most favourable circumstances for it, including continued military production and a willingness to fight. He also noted signs of war fatigue in Russia. [1]
Reesink said military escalation was not the most likely outcome. He considered a continued phase between war and peace more likely, while describing escalation as the most dangerous possibility. [1]
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