Rutte urges calm amid warning of limited Russian attack risk

At a joint press conference in Brussels on 29 September, Nato secretary general Mark Rutte urged calm over warnings about Russia. Allies were investing in defence, he said, and should increase their support for Ukraine rather than reduce it. Rutte also said Nato was stronger than Russia. [2]

Denmark’s defence intelligence service had warned five days earlier of a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on one or more Nato countries bordering Russia, potentially within months. It drew a distinction between that scenario and an outright invasion, for which it saw no indications. It judged an invasion highly unlikely and said Russia would probably need at least six months to prepare after deciding to launch one. [3]

Lithuanian prime minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius told the press conference that intelligence services had no evidence Moscow was preparing a serious incident in the coming weeks or months. He said the risk remained, but was not considered to be escalating at present. Rutte subsequently said he agreed with the prime minister’s answer. [4] [5] [2]

The threat extends beyond conventional attacks. Estonia’s government accused Russian special services on Tuesday of commissioning an August arson attack on a defence company’s building in Tallinn. The criminal investigation is continuing. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected the accusation as baseless. [6] [4]