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Frederik Vansina says Russia’s nuclear rhetoric has not unsettled NATO, but warns against underestimating Moscow as tensions rise.
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Russia has sent NATO a diplomatic note protesting over what it calls threatening military activity around Kaliningrad, its exclave between Poland and Lithuania. NATO confirmed on 29 September that it had replied, saying its exercises posed no risk to Russian territory. [2] [3]
Russia’s embassy in Belgium accused NATO of rehearsing offensive operations and exploring ways to isolate Kaliningrad. It warned that Russia was prepared to use its entire arsenal to defend its territory if NATO countries attempted to cut off the exclave. In a separate statement, Russia’s embassy in London said any British or NATO military action against Russian territory would draw a response including nuclear weapons. [2]
NATO spokeswoman Allison Hart rejected Russia’s allegations and condemned threats of force, including what she called “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric”. She urged Russia to end its war in Ukraine. [3] [4]
Moscow also alleged that NATO’s Baltic Sentry initiative could be used to block shipping. NATO launched it in January 2025 to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, using assets including frigates, patrol aircraft and naval drones. [2] [6]
Earlier this month, Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski proposed more NATO exercises on the alliance’s side of the border near Kaliningrad, while saying NATO should not take offensive action against the exclave. [5]
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a direct attack on Kaliningrad, or potentially other Russian territory, would immediately put the use of all weapons available to Russia on the agenda. He made the conditional warning at the Valdai forum in Moscow.
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Putin’s remarks about a direct attack did not specifically name nuclear weapons. The BBC separately reported that he said Russia would be prepared to use all means, including nuclear weapons, if Western countries blockaded Kaliningrad. [8][10][11]
Interfax also quoted Putin as saying an earlier Russian diplomatic message about Kaliningrad referred to the possible use of all the forces and means at Moscow’s disposal, rather than specifically promising nuclear retaliation. He said Russia would decide which means to use. [10]
NATO had denied targeting Kaliningrad before Putin’s latest remarks. Its secretary general, Mark Rutte, described the alliance as defensive on Wednesday and urged Russia to stop making nuclear threats. [12][13]
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s letter and public statements about Kaliningrad should probably not be seen as confrontational. He said Russia would ensure the region’s security in accordance with its laws. [19]
The explanation followed a Russian message to NATO that, in a passage quoted by Reuters, said Moscow was prepared to use its full arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if NATO countries attempted to isolate Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia. Peskov did not announce a change to that conditional warning. [21] [19]
NATO has said it received and answered the message. Secretary General Mark Rutte described the alliance as defensive and urged Russia to stop making nuclear threats. [18]
President Vladimir Putin also endorsed the earlier Russian statements and letters. In separate remarks about a direct attack on Russian territory, he said Moscow would decide which weapons to use. That is a different condition from the isolation scenario described in the message to NATO. [23]
Belgium’s chief of defence, Frederik Vansina, said Russian nuclear rhetoric over Kaliningrad had not thrown NATO off balance. In an ANP interview published on 1 October, he said the alliance was accustomed to forceful language from Moscow, but should not underestimate Russia and must take every communication seriously. [24]