Early-release total expected to reach 4,500 prisoners by June 2027

The phased scheme changes when eligible prisoners can begin serving the rest of their sentence in the community. Around 2,550 are expected to be released by the end of 2026, rising to roughly 4,500 by the following summer. The timetable comes amid pressure on prison space: in late September, there were 87,499 people in 120 prisons in England and Wales, with around 1,500 beds available. [1]

The scheme applies to roughly 70,000 offenders. Eligible prisoners who would previously have spent half their sentence in jail can instead leave after one-third, while remaining on licence for the rest of the sentence. The first phase covers sentences of up to 19 months; from November, it extends to sentences of up to three years and two months. From June 2027, some serious offenders serving fixed terms of more than 12 years will become eligible after half their term rather than two-thirds. About 18,000 inmates are excluded, including people convicted of murder, manslaughter and sexual offences. [1]

People released on licence can be recalled to prison if they breach its conditions. More will be required to wear electronic tags under the new arrangements. [1]

Martin Jones, the independent inspector of probation, said he was “not fully confident” the service could cope. A report warned that almost half of offenders were not tagged promptly. The government says it has recruited 1,300 additional probation staff and provided AI tools to help oversee offenders. [1]

Update

Around 4,500 prisoners are due to be released early in England and Wales by June 2027 under the government’s scheme, BBC Verify reports. About 700 are due to leave in the first group. [2]

The prison population stood at 87,499 on 28 September — 98% of usable capacity. The Ministry of Justice has warned that prisoner numbers could exceed capacity as soon as November. [2]

Under the scheme, eligible prisoners will be released after serving a third of their custodial sentence rather than 40% or 50%. People sentenced for manslaughter, rape, serious child sex offences and grooming offences are excluded.