BBC reports widening Indian trade deficit with China

India’s trade deficit with China has risen from $44bn in 2020 to $112bn in 2026, according to BBC News. The BBC does not specify what period its 2026 figure covers. At a Brics summit in Delhi in September, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping pledged to address structural trade imbalances and supply-chain issues. [1]

Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade and Research Initiative says China supplies more than 30% of India’s industrial imports and that India depends on it for more than 100 critical products. He says Indian production remains heavily reliant on imported components, particularly from China, even as imports of some finished goods have fallen. If imports continue at their current pace, he estimates the bilateral deficit could reach $134bn, though no date is given for that projection. [1]

India’s toy trade shows that import patterns can change. The BBC says tariffs on imported toys rose from 20% to 60% and later 70%. It reports that toy imports fell from nearly $300m in 2020 to $100m in 2026, while exports rose from about $129m to $200m. These are figures for India’s toy trade overall, not its toy trade with China alone. The BBC describes the import decline as one-third, although its stated values indicate a fall of roughly two-thirds. [1]