New Guinea’s last glaciers face disappearance within years

New Guinea’s last glaciers are shrinking towards disappearance, threatening a natural archive of tropical climate history on a mountain of deep significance to local Amungme people. Researchers project that the glaciers are very likely to vanish around 2030 if recent retreat rates continue. [1] [2]

The remaining glacier ice lies around Puncak Jaya in the Indonesian west of the island. The mountain, also known as Carstensz Pyramid, rises to 4,884 metres above sea level. [1] [2]

A study published in The Cryosphere in December 2025 put the glaciers’ combined surface area at 0.165 square kilometres — 16.5 hectares — in 2024, with an uncertainty of ±5%. Using satellite imagery from 2023 and 2024, the researchers found that the area had fallen by about 65% since the previous survey in 2018. [1]

Compared with a reconstruction of their extent in 1850, based partly on historical maps, the glaciers had lost more than 99% of their surface area. [1]

The study’s authors, David Ibel, Thomas Mölg and Christian Sommer, made their projection of disappearance around 2030 conditional on the observed rates of retreat continuing. The BBC reported on 25 September 2026 that the remaining snowy areas were expected to disappear within one or two years. [1] [2]

Warming erodes the remaining ice

Glacier ecologist Marie Šabacká told the BBC that the retreat is driven by atmospheric warming caused by human activity, including the burning of coal, oil and gas. As temperatures rise, the freezing level moves higher up mountains, allowing more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow. [2]

El Niño events can accelerate the loss, while cloud cover, snowfall and the shape of the mountains influence its pace. [2]

The ice also holds information about past atmospheric conditions. Ice cores taken from Puncak Jaya allow scientists to investigate the region’s climate history and changes in the surrounding tropical Pacific, including the Western Pacific Warm Pool, the BBC reported. [2]