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AI ANALYSIS & OPINION
Editorial illustrationOfficial reviews found serious FBI surveillance errors, but differed over other parts of the Russia inquiry and supported elements of the intelligence analysis. They do not by themselves establish the wider plot alleged by Gregg Jarrett.
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The FBI’s surveillance of Carter Page was marred by serious errors, but official reviews of the 2016 Russia inquiry also support parts of the intelligence assessment and disagree over key investigative decisions. That mixed record is central to the sweeping ‘framing’ allegation in a Gregg Jarrett opinion promoted by Donald Trump.
Trump’s Truth, an archive of his posts, dates his endorsement to 13 October 2026 at 6.51pm EDT. It records him saying: “Gregg Jarrett is fantastic — A MUST WATCH!” Alongside that praise is a headline attributed to Jarrett: “Trump was framed by the Russia collusion hoax. Now the whole story is exposed.”
Jarrett, a Fox News legal analyst and commentator, alleges that Hillary Clinton personally approved a scheme to frame Trump and that her campaign and the Democratic National Committee secretly funded a fabricated dossier. He also accuses Barack Obama and his associates of knowingly using false accusations against Trump, and says officials relied almost entirely on a dossier they knew was false.
His opinion promotes the three-part Fox Nation series *Russia! Russia! Russia! The Plot to Stop Trump*. Fox News advertised 12 October 2026 — the day before the archived endorsement — as the premiere date for all three episodes.
In his 11 December 2019 statement, Justice Department inspector general Michael Horowitz described significant inaccuracies and omissions in all four surveillance applications concerning Page. There were seven in the first application and a cumulative total of 17 by the final renewal. The errors made the evidence used to justify surveillance appear stronger than it was.
The statement published by the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of the Inspector General, describes Christopher Steele’s reporting as playing a “central and essential” role in the decision to seek a surveillance order. It does not speculate whether correcting any particular misstatement or omission, or a combination, would have changed the outcome.
On the separate question of opening Crossfire Hurricane, the FBI’s Russia investigation, the statement said the decision complied with departmental and bureau policies, which set a low threshold. It reported finding no documentary or testimonial evidence that political bias or improper motivation influenced the opening decision. That finding concerned the decision to begin the inquiry, not every subsequent step.
The official U.S. House Judiciary Committee hearing transcript of 21 June 2023 records a different assessment: there was no legitimate basis for a full investigation, although the FBI had an obligation to examine the information.
A review by the Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Analysis, dated 26 June 2025 criticised the compressed timetable, restrictions on access and excessive involvement by agency heads in the 2016 intelligence assessment of Russian election interference. It criticised the treatment of Steele material, saying unsubstantiated annex claims had been elevated into supporting evidence. It also said the judgement that Vladimir Putin aspired to help Trump did not merit “high confidence”. The review stated that it reflected a CIA perspective and was not coordinated across the intelligence community.
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Yet the same review deemed the overall assessment defensible and much of its analytical work robust and consistent with standards. It listed 173 separate reports from the CIA, National Security Agency and FBI, plus 74 open-source citations. Those totals describe the assessment as a whole, not the weight of evidence behind every individual judgement.
The U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’s published summary of 21 April 2020 said all lines of analysis were supported by intelligence drawn from multiple sources, and that interviews affirmed analysts were under no political pressure to reach specific conclusions. It also said Steele’s material was summarised in an annex but neither appeared in the assessment’s body nor supported its analytical judgements.
The Senate summary and the later CIA review therefore offer different accounts of the dossier’s analytical role.
Special counsel John Durham’s testimony also described a financing chain: he said the Clinton campaign funded opposition research by Fusion GPS, and Fusion GPS paid Steele for the dossier.
He described intelligence about a purported plan by one of Clinton’s foreign-policy advisers to create a scandal linking Trump to Russia. Durham said then-CIA director John Brennan briefed the president and other senior officials on 3 August 2016, but noted that the intelligence’s accuracy was uncertain at the time.
Senator Chuck Grassley’s office announced publication of the previously classified Durham annex on 31 July 2025. Its summary quoted both an assessment that purported emails were likely authentic and Durham’s assessment that the purported correspondence was ultimately a composite of several emails obtained through Russian intelligence hacking. A composite can incorporate authentic communications without establishing every assertion within them.
The accusation against Obama also has an earlier history. In a report published on 24 July 2025, Dutch broadcaster NOS said Trump had accused Obama and his administration of treason. Obama’s spokesperson rejected the claimed evidence and maintained that Russia had tried to influence the 2016 election without successfully manipulating votes.
Taken together, the surveillance errors, political funding and a briefing about intelligence of uncertain accuracy do not by themselves establish a coordinated scheme to fabricate information known to be false. The wider allegation turns on evidence connecting those separate elements to knowing, joint action — not simply on the existence of investigative failures.