Trump’s 48% turnout boast lacks evidence of a personal boost

More specific research does show a turnout advantage for his coalition. Pew Research Center found that 89% of Trump’s 2020 voters participated again in 2024, compared with 85% of Joe Biden’s 2020 voters. Pew checked participation against state voting records; candidate choices came from survey responses. [5]

Trump also led by 55% to 41% among people who were eligible to vote in 2020 and 2022, skipped both elections and then voted in 2024. They accounted for 12% of 2024 voters. But another, larger group — those who voted in 2020 and 2024 but missed the 2022 midterms — made up 22% of 2024 voters and favoured Kamala Harris by 51% to 47%. Presidential-year voters who skip midterms are not exclusively Trump supporters. [5]

Trump used a different formulation earlier in the campaign. In a rally clip from Mobile, Alabama, on 2 October, aired by CNN the following day, he described elections without him on the ballot: “We have 44 percent or 48 percent less people.” If the same pair of election totals is meant, 48% fewer voters without him would imply about 92% more with him, not 48%. Neither statement sets out its calculation. [10] [1]

Kansas’s voting deadlines

The 27 October deadlines in Trump’s appeal match Kansas rules. Every county must begin early in-person voting by then, and regular applications for postal ballots must also be filed with the county election officer by that date. Counties were allowed to begin in-person advance voting on 14 October. [6] [8]

For postal voters, the crucial return requirement is receipt, not dispatch. Regular postal ballots must reach the county election office by 7pm local time on election day, 3 November. An election-day postmark alone is not enough. [7]

The national figures and Pew’s findings support a distinction that Trump’s appeal leaves unresolved: a turnout advantage for his coalition is not a measured 48% increase in overall participation personally caused by his presence on the ballot.