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More intense attacks in Ukraine are increasing civilian suffering and the risk of the war spilling over into neighbouring countries, senior UN official Rosemary DiCarlo warns. The vulnerable energy supply is an additional concern for the coming winter, she says.
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According to Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN’s most senior official for political and peacebuilding affairs, the war in Ukraine is entering a more dangerous phase. At the Security Council on 23 September, she warned of more intense attacks, increasing civilian suffering and a growing risk of violence spreading across the region. This is her assessment, not a collective position of the Council. [1]
According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, more civilians were killed or injured in the first eight months of 2026 than in the whole of 2025. That comparison concerns deaths and injuries combined: the death toll alone was still below that of the previous calendar year. [2]
In August, the mission recorded at least 372 civilians killed and 2,349 injured. This was the second-highest monthly total of 2026, but lower than in July. The figures therefore do not show an uninterrupted month-on-month rise. They include only verified cases; because of a lack of access and reports that cannot be verified, the true scale of civilian suffering is probably considerably higher, according to the mission. [2]
In its review of 2025, published in January, the mission reported that 97 per cent of the civilian casualties verified at that point in Ukraine resulted from Russian attacks on territory under Ukrainian government control. That percentage relates to 2025 and does not provide a breakdown for 2026. [3]
A day after DiCarlo’s warning, the Romanian defence ministry reported a new border incident. An aerial object spent about four minutes in national airspace on the morning of 24 September before crashing near Solca, in Suceava County. According to the ministry, there were no casualties or material damage. The visible statement does not specify the object’s type or origin. It therefore does not establish that there was a deliberate attack on Romania. [4]
Nor does every border alert mean that an airspace violation has occurred. Following the deployment of F-16s on 21 September and the alert overnight on 22–23 September, the ministry reported no incursions into Romanian airspace.
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DiCarlo also highlighted Ukraine’s vulnerable energy supply. She said the cumulative effect of attacks on infrastructure already under severe strain could leave millions of people without light and heat in the coming months. This is a warning about a possible consequence, not an established number of people who will be affected. [1]
At the same time, the energy supply is being expanded. According to the Razumkov Centre, new wind and storage capacity was brought into operation in the first half of 2026. However, the research centre also identifies a shortage of resources for winter preparations. It has not yet been established whether the available capacity will be sufficient this winter. [8]