Drought-driven fires push New Guinea emissions to unusual highs

Fires driven by drought have sent thick smoke across New Guinea for weeks, disrupting flights and closing schools, while emissions on both sides of the island have reached unusually high levels, NASA reports.

The US space agency says fires in Papua New Guinea had released nearly 32 million tonnes of carbon by 19 October — more than in any other year by that point. On the Indonesian side of the island, emissions had topped 35 million tonnes, the third-highest level after the severe fire years of 2015 and 1997.

NASA’s report, published on 22 October, is based in part on satellite observations and estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database. The agency says the dry conditions are linked to El Niño’s effect on rainfall patterns. In parts of the Trans-Fly region in southern Papua New Guinea, there had been more than 90 consecutive days without rain, with recent precipitation at roughly 5 to 10 per cent of normal, according to the country’s weather service.

Most fires are started by people, researchers say. Burning for crops, pasture maintenance, land clearing and hunting can escape control in dry conditions, particularly in the island’s drier southern areas.

NASA says smoke from fires has delayed or cancelled flights, closed schools and prompted officials in some areas to advise children and older people to wear masks. Robert Field, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, said smoke can remain near the ground and cause air-quality problems.

In Indonesian Papua, emissions were exceeded only by those recorded in 2015 and 1997, both years of severe fires associated with El Niño. Fire scientist Guido van der Werf told NASA that emissions in Papua New Guinea were already above the 2015 total and that 2026 was likely to become the territory’s highest-emission year on record, surpassing 1997.

Researchers expect fires to continue until the wet season’s heavy rains reach southern New Guinea, typically in early November. NASA also notes longer-term pressure on forests in Indonesian Papua: Global Forest Watch data cited in its report show the region lost 27,000 hectares of primary forest in 2025, nearly twice the 2024 total.