US growth signal shared by Trump is real, but GDP surge remains a forecast

The standard GDP accounts also give grounds for optimism. Consumer spending and private fixed investment together grew at an inflation-adjusted, annualised rate of 4.6%, up from 1.8% in the first quarter. Overall real GDP growth, however, was 2.2% annualised — revised up from an earlier estimate of 1.5%, but still below the first quarter’s 2.5%. [3]

Rising imports help explain why stronger spending did not translate into equally strong domestic output. Associated Press reported that increased imports, partly reflecting computer chips and other goods supporting AI investment, deducted nearly 1.7 percentage points from second-quarter GDP growth. Imports are subtracted to keep foreign production out of the US total. BEA also identified data centres among the drivers of its upward investment revision. [3] [10]

By the time Trump shared the column, the labour market offered a more cautious signal. The jobs report released on 2 October estimated a net gain of 29,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, following a revised gain of 133,000 in August and a loss of 10,000 in July. Unemployment was little changed at 4.2%. That is a weak hiring picture, although output can grow without a matching rise in employment. [7]

The real output gains also coexisted with price pressure: the personal consumption expenditures price index rose at a 5% annualised rate in the second quarter. [6]

What GDP counts

Skousen writes that GDP “leaves out the all-important supply chain”. That description is misleading. GDP includes the value added by all domestic industries, including suppliers. What it does not do is repeatedly add the full value of intermediate sales as goods move through production. Gross output provides a complementary view of activity, rather than uncovering value missing from GDP. [2] [4]

The column’s larger figure — 13.8% growth in inflation-adjusted business-to-business spending — comes from Skousen’s own index. His accompanying release identifies that rate as annualised and also uses an adjusted gross-output measure that includes gross wholesale and retail sales, whereas BEA measures those industries’ output through trading margins. The 13.8% figure is neither GDP growth nor the official gross-output growth rate. [4] [8]

The same release urges BEA to publish gross output earlier and give it greater prominence, making clear that Skousen is also advocating wider use of the measure. [8]

Taken together, the figures justify an upbeat signal, not a confirmed GDP surge. The first official estimate for July–September is due on 29 October. [3]