Why the UK has yet to see a named storm this season

The UK has yet to see a named storm this season because the jet stream has largely stayed north or north-west of the country, steering deeper Atlantic low-pressure systems away. The result has been a quieter, drier start to autumn for much of England and Wales, though the Met Office expects wetter and windier weather to become more likely later in the season. [1]

The jet stream helps steer storm systems towards the UK. This autumn, its position has allowed high pressure to exert more influence, while south or south-westerly winds have brought warmer-than-usual conditions. Rain has been heaviest in Scotland and Northern Ireland; parts of England and Wales have remained much drier. [1]

That pattern may be changing. The BBC’s weather presenters say forecasts point to deeper low-pressure systems affecting more of the UK in the coming week, with the possibility of the season’s first spell of widely disruptive weather. The Met Office’s outlook for October to December gives twice the usual chance of wetter conditions and 1.3 times the usual chance of windier conditions. [1]

Storms are named when potentially damaging winds are forecast, but flooding rain or disruptive snow can also prompt a name. The UK, Ireland and the Netherlands share a naming group, which began naming storms in 2015. [1]

A first named storm in October would not be unusual: in about half of the years since naming began, the first arrived after 1 November. Named storms can occur year-round, but are more common from late summer through autumn and peak in December, January and February. [1]