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Sir Andrew Dilnot says an NHS-style social care system in England could take decades to introduce and cost well over £18bn a year, as the prime minister prepares to explain his plans.
What has changed? · 28/09/2026, 11:41 UTC
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Prime Minister Andy Burnham has proposed a national care service for England that would be free at the point of use. In an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reported on 27 September 2026, he said “broken social care will in the end break the NHS” and that he would not look the other way. [1]
Burnham said he would develop a clear plan for the service and put it to the public at the next general election. [1]
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp, who also spoke to Kuenssberg, warned that more tax rises were likely to fund the scheme. He called that a “red line” for the Conservatives. [1]
Economist Sir Andrew Dilnot, who previously led a commission on social care reform, told the BBC on 28 September that an NHS-style system in England could take many years, even decades, to introduce. He interpreted Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s ambition as making care free at the point of use, including residential costs. Burnham has not yet set out the full design. [2]
Dilnot estimated that such a system could cost well over £18bn a year. He suggested a model closer to Scotland’s might cost about half as much, but that approach does not cover accommodation, food or everyday living costs. The Health Foundation has estimated that government funding of all social care support in England could cost around £18.5bn a year. [2]
Burnham said he expected costs to be lower. He described his approach as “everyone contributes, everyone is covered”, did not rule out tax rises and promised more detail in a conference speech on Tuesday. He suggested any changes would wait until after the next general election. [2]
2 listed sources · explore evidence, limitations and provenance.
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