China’s CO2 emissions post largest quarterly fall since Covid lockdowns

The estimate covers emissions from fossil fuels and cement production. It was made by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, using official figures and commercial data for an analysis published by Carbon Brief.

Coal use fell by an estimated 3% compared with the same quarter a year earlier, while coal-fired electricity generation dropped by 3.3%. Output from solar, wind and nuclear power rose by more than twice the increase in total electricity demand. Exceptionally mild weather also accounted for part of the slowdown in energy demand growth, Myllyvirta said.

Oil use fell by 4% overall and by 9% in transport. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil shipments and hit demand, while electric vehicles continued to gain ground. But the analysis does not establish that the war was the largest cause of the overall emissions decline: it also identifies lower coal use in power generation and slowing growth in the coal-to-chemicals industry as major factors.

The quarterly fall leaves estimated emissions for January to September 2026 down 0.5% on the same period in 2025. It does not settle whether the decline will last: China is still building coal-fired power capacity, and Myllyvirta says the outlook depends on energy demand, clean-power growth and the response to an economic slowdown.