Dutch car industry forecasts lower new-car sales in 2027

The Dutch automotive industry expects sales of new passenger cars to fall next year, with industry groups forecasting 371,000 registrations in 2027, down from an expected 384,000 in 2026.

BOVAG and RAI Association say higher tax costs for leased electric cars and company cars with combustion engines will weigh on the market. They also point to a weaker economic outlook, forecasting growth of 1.2% in 2027 and a slight decline in purchasing power. Fuel prices remain uncertain, the groups say, after rising sharply this year amid the Iran war.

The 2026 forecast is close to the 2025 total. The industry groups’ 2027 projection marks a drop of about 3.4% from their estimate for this year.

The groups expect the tax addition for leased electric cars to rise from 18% to 20%. Employers are also expected to pay more under a so-called pseudo-final levy on company cars with combustion engines, including plug-in hybrids.

By contrast, sales of new vans are forecast to edge up. The industry expects about 31,000 light commercial vehicles to be sold this year, compared with around 22,000 in 2025, and projects a further rise to 33,000 in 2027. The market is recovering from a sharp fall after an exemption from vehicle tax for vans with combustion engines ended in 2025.

The forecast contrasts with a September surge in Dutch new-car sales, which industry groups linked to motorists and employers responding to tax changes due in 2027. That earlier rise came during a broader period in which sales for the first nine months of 2026 were down nearly 2%.