US consumer confidence rebounds 7.5 points as Trump hails a 7.5% rise

US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in October in the survey that appears to underpin Donald Trump’s claim of a 7.5% rise. The Conference Board’s index climbed to 91.7 from September’s revised 84.2 — a gain of 7.5 index points, or about 8.9%.

“Consumer Confidence is up 7.5%, an extremely big rise. Thank you!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on 27 October 2026. His post did not identify a survey or comparison period. The Trump’s Truth archive dates it to 11.20am Eastern time, about 80 minutes after the Conference Board’s scheduled release.

For this index, Trump’s wording understated the percentage gain rather than exaggerating it. The index combines five questions about business conditions, jobs and income expectations, with 1985 set at 100. It is not a percentage of people who feel confident: the percentage change is calculated by dividing the 7.5-point increase by September’s 84.2 reading.

October’s results are preliminary, based on responses collected from 1 to 21 October. September’s reading was revised up from the originally reported 81.9, so the latest monthly gain is measured against that higher, revised base.

The increase was substantial. For comparison, the Conference Board’s May 2025 release reported a larger 12.3-point monthly rebound.

The more important qualification is that October’s improvement returned confidence only to June’s level. Fergus McCormick, a Conference Board senior economist, said confidence “remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years”.

He linked the rebound to easing petrol prices between September and October. Yet consumers continued to complain about rising costs, including food and groceries, and planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months.

A separate survey gave a more subdued picture. The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment index, released on 23 October, was virtually unchanged at 48.0, compared with 48.1 in September. It was 10.4% below a year earlier.

Michigan’s result does not negate the Conference Board’s increase. It leaves a mixed picture: a real, strong monthly rebound in one survey, rather than a clear, sustained recovery in consumers’ mood.