US growth accelerates, but Trump’s factory-record claim goes beyond the figures

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that inflation-adjusted GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.4% in the three months to September, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. The annualised figure shows what growth would look like if that quarter’s pace continued for a year; the estimated increase from the previous quarter was about 0.8%.

In a Truth Social post on 29 October, preserved by the Trump’s Truth archive, the president called the growth rate “historic”. He said a roughly 21% increase in equipment investment meant record numbers of factories and companies were being built or expanded.

Growth was the strongest in a year, but higher rates have been recorded recently. The comparable figure for the third quarter of 2025 was 3.9%, according to the bureau’s revised data. This year’s figure is a first estimate and could also be revised.

The result exceeded the 3.2% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Trump said it beat 72% of economists’ forecasts, a figure the White House also cited for that survey. Bloomberg’s report, republished by Moneycontrol, did not list the individual forecasts.

Equipment investment did rise sharply: by an inflation-adjusted 20.9% at an annualised rate, compared with 13.4% in the previous quarter. That is roughly 4.9% over the quarter itself. Computers and peripherals led the increase, according to the BEA, which based that part of its estimate mainly on import data. The measure tracks spending, not the number of factories or companies, so it cannot establish Trump’s record claim.

Census Bureau data show private spending on manufacturing construction in August was about 20% lower than a year earlier, before adjusting for inflation. That is also a spending measure, not a count of projects. Broader investment in non-residential structures grew at an annualised 5.4% in the third quarter; KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said almost all of that increase was in data centres.

Trump also said core inflation remained low, without specifying a measure. The BEA’s core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose at an annualised 2.5% rate in the third quarter, down from 3.3% in the previous quarter. Separately, the same index was 3.1% higher in September than a year earlier, compared with 3.0% in August. Overall inflation by that measure was 3.6% over the year to September. The Federal Reserve, which targets 2% overall inflation over the longer term, said the day before that inflation remained elevated.

Trump urged voters to back Republicans in the 3 November midterms, warning that Democrats would “burn it all down” if they won. The GDP report measures activity before the election; it cannot establish what effect the result would have on future growth.