Polls do not back election turnaround claim Trump shared about Netanyahu

On 28 October, Trump posted a passage on Truth Social saying that “the whole tide turned” when he endorsed Netanyahu, producing “a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN”. The passage was in quotation marks, and the archived post named no author. Trump separately told reporters that he thought his endorsement “had helped him a lot”.

Netanyahu’s position after the 27 October election was stronger than some polls had suggested, but still uncertain. With nearly 86 per cent of votes counted on 28 October, Israeli broadcasters projected 53 seats for his bloc, 48 for the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot and 19 for Arab-led parties, Reuters reported. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats.

The Arab-led parties also oppose Netanyahu and could give his opponents a majority on paper, but cooperation is politically contested. The final count was still awaited on 29 October, and Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while parties seek a way to form a government.

Trump first endorsed Netanyahu on 18 October, nine days before the vote, presenting him as the preferred US partner against Iran. Netanyahu featured Trump’s praise in campaign material, and Trump endorsed him again shortly before the election. Axios reported, citing US and Israeli sources, that Netanyahu had asked for more public support; a Likud spokeswoman denied it.

What the polls showed

A Channel 12 poll put Netanyahu’s bloc on 49 seats on 12 October, before Trump’s endorsement. The same pollster projected 51 seats on 19 October and 50 in its final poll, conducted on 22–23 October. The provisional projection of 53 seats was three above that last estimate.

The wider polling picture was also mixed. Israel Votes’ weighted average of recent polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 51.1 seats on 16 October and 52.4 on 23 October. Individual polls ranged from 48 to 62 seats on the latter date. The averages use overlapping surveys and do not isolate the effect of Trump’s endorsement.

In the 19 October Channel 12 poll, 12 per cent of respondents said Trump’s support strengthened their support for Netanyahu’s Likud party, 17 per cent said it made them less likely to vote Likud, and 64 per cent said it would have no effect. Those responses were given before Trump’s later endorsement and do not show how people ultimately voted.

Netanyahu’s bloc also did better in the partial count than the first exit polls had suggested. A difference between an estimate and a count is not, by itself, evidence that votes shifted after polling stations closed. Trump’s support may have influenced voters, but the polling and partial count do not establish that he rescued Netanyahu from an otherwise decisive defeat.