Climate Analytics says warming could be halted at 1.7°C with rapid emissions cuts

A new Climate Analytics report says global warming could be halted at about 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels by around 2050 — but only if fossil fuels are phased out rapidly and emissions of methane and other short-lived greenhouse gases are cut sharply.

The report describes what researchers consider theoretically possible, not a likely outcome under current policies. Climate Analytics says methane emissions are still rising, despite a pledge made by 159 countries and the European Union in 2021 to cut them by at least 30% by 2030.

Agriculture offers the largest scope for methane cuts, accounting for 48% of the reductions the report identifies as possible. Methane is released by rice cultivation and livestock, including through digestion in cattle and other ruminants. The waste and energy sectors could also contribute.

Switching energy production from fossil fuels to sources such as wind and solar would also stop methane leaks from sites such as gas facilities, the researchers argue. Climate Analytics analyst Anna Kanduth said the report called for “the highest possible ambition” in every sector.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas driving current warming after carbon dioxide. Although less abundant in the atmosphere, a methane molecule has more than 80 times the warming effect of a CO₂ molecule over a 20-year period. Because methane remains in the atmosphere for less time, reducing its emissions can limit warming in the near term.

The report comes ahead of the next UN climate summit, due to begin in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday. The 1.7°C pathway depends on rapid action across sectors; the report’s account of continuing methane emissions highlights the gap between that possibility and progress so far.