Cook shifts Minnesota Senate rating towards Republicans but still favours Democrats

Cook Political Report moved Minnesota’s US Senate race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” on 20 October 2026 — a shift towards Republicans, but one that leaves Democrat Peggy Flanagan favoured over Republican Michele Tafoya. [2]

President Donald Trump shared the Just the News headline, “Cook Political Report shifts Minnesota Senate race toward GOP”, with a link and no additional comment. Trump’s Truth, which archives his posts, records it at 9.44pm EDT on 20 October. The linked article itself reports the old and new Democratic ratings and Flanagan’s polling lead. [1] [5]

The contest is for the seat of retiring Democratic senator Tina Smith. Flanagan is Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, while Tafoya is a former sports broadcaster. [6] [10]

Trump had publicly urged voters to support Tafoya on 12 October. She was campaigning as an independent voice and responded to his endorsement the following day by stressing her aim to bring voters together across political lines. [10]

Recent polling still puts Flanagan narrowly ahead. RealClearPolling’s average of six surveys conducted between 29 September and 15 October gives her 46.5% to Tafoya’s 43.3%, a lead of 3.2 percentage points. All six surveys in that average placed Flanagan ahead. [7]

One of those surveys, the Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, found Flanagan leading 47% to 43%, with 9% undecided. Mason-Dixon interviewed 800 likely voters from 5 to 7 October; the poll’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. [8]

The polling has not moved consistently towards Republicans. In the KSTP/SurveyUSA series listed by RealClearPolling, Flanagan led by five points in August, the candidates were tied in September, and she led by three points in October. Her October position was weaker than in August but stronger than in September, rather than part of an uninterrupted Republican advance. [7]

Explaining the three rating changes announced that day, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, Jessica Taylor, wrote: “In Senate races, the quality of individual candidates can be magnified in ways that defy national trends, especially in midterm years.” [3]

The other two revisions went towards Democrats: South Carolina moved from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican”, and Mississippi from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican”. None of the three changes switched the favoured party: Republicans retained the edge in Cook’s assessment of those two states, and Democrats retained it in Minnesota.