South Africa votes as ANC faces further decline

South Africans are voting in local elections that could deepen the African National Congress’s decline, after the party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 2024. The results will also shape who governs the country’s municipalities, which are responsible for essential services including water, electricity and rubbish collection.

The ANC won 40% of the vote in the 2024 general election, down from 70% in 2004. Polls suggest it could lose further ground in Wednesday’s local elections, which are being contested by more than 500 parties. President Cyril Ramaphosa rejected the idea that the party was in a downward spiral, telling supporters at a rally that it was “going higher and higher”.

In Alexandra, a Johannesburg township where the ANC has traditionally had strong support, residents told the BBC that poor services and a lack of change had left some reluctant to vote. First-time voter Sanele Ntombela said he hoped voting could bring change, despite problems with rubbish, electricity and water. Another resident, Zandile Mncube, said she would not vote, even though she was registered.

Concerns about local government extend beyond Alexandra. South Africa’s auditor-general gave clean audits—the highest ranking for a public entity—to just 39 of the country’s 257 municipalities for 2024-25. None of Gauteng’s three metropolitan municipalities—Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni—was among them. Auditor-general Tsakani Maluleke has warned that Johannesburg’s deteriorating finances risk further compromising service delivery.

The elections may also reshape coalitions. All three Gauteng metros are currently governed by coalitions, with the ANC the largest party in each. Political analyst Melanie Verwoerd expects the ANC to perform worse nationally than ever before and said coalition governments were likely to remain common in Gauteng. Such arrangements have often seen leadership changes when parties fall out, a pattern the BBC says has affected services in some municipalities.

An Ipsos poll put ANC support at 30%, down from 46% at the 2021 local elections, while projecting the Democratic Alliance at 25%, up from 22%. Those figures are polling estimates, not results. In Johannesburg, DA leader Helen Zille is seeking the mayoralty. In eThekwini, which includes Durban, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party is projected to perform strongly, but polls suggest it may need coalition partners to govern. Analyst Levy Ndou said an ANC-DA coalition appeared unavoidable in most metros, while noting uncertainty over whether the national government’s unity arrangement would influence local coalitions.

More than 29 million people are registered to vote. The electoral commission has seven days to announce the results, and parties have 14 days to form governing structures.