Vance blames Iran war for midterm defeat as Trump says he would do it again

US Vice-President JD Vance said the war with Iran was the reason Republicans lost the 3 November midterm elections, in which Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote on X on 4 November. He argued that many people who had voted for Donald Trump in 2024 had switched to the Democrats, rather than stayed at home.

Vance said an unnamed pollster had asked former Trump voters what would bring them back. He listed four answers: ending the war, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, putting America first and changing the US relationship with Israel. Vance did not name the pollster or give the survey’s sample size or method. He also acknowledged that the Republican economic message could have been sharper.

An ABC News national poll of House voters found that 34% considered the Iran war crucial to their vote, compared with 49% for the cost of living and 55% for government corruption. That poll covered House voters generally, rather than the former Trump voters Vance described; it does not by itself establish what caused the Republican defeat.

Asked about Vance’s comments later on 4 November, Trump said they were “largely true”, pointing to a short-term rise in petrol prices. But he said he would make the same decision again, arguing that Iran could not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Asked whether the war was worth it, he said it was.

Vance challenged those who believed the war was worth the political cost to make that argument, but did not explicitly say that he thought it was not worth it. He has previously supported the war publicly.

The exchange follows Trump’s denial that he directed Vance to restart peace talks with Iran. Trump said Vance’s contact concerned medical supplies, while acknowledging separate negotiations through mediators.

Vance is expected to be a contender for the presidency in 2028, according to the BBC, but has not announced a decision to run.