Democrats’ midterm gains reshape the early outlook for 2028

Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections, giving the party a stronger position from which to challenge President Donald Trump and prepare for the 2028 presidential race. Votes were still being counted on 6 November.

The result does not settle who will succeed Trump, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. Nor does a strong midterm performance guarantee a presidential victory: Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012 after Republicans made large gains in the 2010 midterms.

Democratic contenders and competing visions

Two Democrats whose re-election victories could raise their national profiles are Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, both of whom won in states Trump carried in 2024 or which are closely contested. Ossoff has previously said he has no plans to run for president; Shapiro has not committed to a bid.

The party’s gains have also given both its progressive and moderate wings reason to advocate their approaches. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Senate race, while moderate Democrats won Senate contests in Republican strongholds including Kansas and South Carolina, the Associated Press reported. Those results leave open the question of which approach will prevail in a presidential primary.

Reuters contacted representatives for nine prominent potential Democratic contenders on 5 November; none confirmed a 2028 run.

Republicans assess the defeat

Vice-President JD Vance is among the Republicans discussed as possible successors to Trump. Karen Beckwith, a political scientist at Case Western Reserve University, told the BBC that the election campaign had hurt Vance badly. Republican strategist Matt Dole told Reuters that the vice-president has less room than other potential contenders to distance himself from Trump.

Vance said on 4 November that the war with Iran was the reason Republicans lost. His remarks were not a clear break with the president: Vance also said Trump had made the same point the previous night, while Trump described Iran as part of the explanation, according to Axios. The outlet reported that exit polls also identified the cost of living and government corruption among voters’ leading concerns.