Dutch nitrogen plans could drive 10–30% of livestock farmers to quit, researchers say

Researchers at Wageningen University expect the government’s nitrogen policy to lead 10–30 per cent of Dutch livestock farmers to close their businesses over time, as farms face costly changes to cut emissions. The estimate is a forecast, not a count of closures already under way.

The researchers assessed the likely effects of a package of measures announced in June. Project leader Petra Berkhout, of Wageningen Social and Economic Research, said some farmers might be unable or unwilling to make the required investments, even with support from the nitrogen fund. A farm’s location could also affect its options.

Medium-sized farms are expected to face the hardest choices. The researchers say larger businesses may be better placed to recoup investment, while smaller farms often have fewer animals or another source of income.

Berkhout described the package as highly consequential for farm families, but said its wider economic effects appeared limited. She said reducing livestock farming was needed to meet nature and environmental targets. She also said food security was not at risk: the Netherlands is a small net importer of beef, while it produces between 1.5 and nine times as much as it consumes for other animal products.

The plans have since been adjusted in some respects, but a nitrogen bill sent to parliament this week by agriculture minister Jaimi van Essen remains largely unchanged, the report said. Farming organisations have again criticised the proposals.

The researchers said uncertainty over permits is holding back investment in emissions reductions. They called for farmers to receive clarity about whether their businesses can obtain the necessary permits.