Dutch transport firms urged to prepare for lasting shifts in trade flows

Dutch transport companies should prepare for lasting shifts in routes, freight flows and logistics costs as geopolitical tensions reshape trade, according to a report by ING, trade group Transport and Logistics Netherlands (TLN) and transport insurer TVM.

The organisations say wars, trade restrictions, import tariffs and competition for critical raw materials are changing goods flows to and from the Netherlands. They urge companies to develop alternative routes, broaden their customer base and deploy capacity flexibly.

“Now that geopolitics is shifting production and goods flows, adaptability is becoming just as important,” ING sector banker Erik Slaaf said. “Tomorrow’s winners will be the companies that can move with those flows.”

The study, conducted by research firm Panteia, says past transport patterns offer less guidance as production changes. The three organisations put the decline in EU production of basic chemicals at about 30 per cent in recent years, and say car production is nearly a quarter lower. They warn that some freight from Dutch ports to other European destinations could fall, requiring hauliers to seek cargo and contracts elsewhere.

Disruptions to international shipping routes are also causing longer transit times, higher logistics costs and greater fluctuations in demand for transport capacity, the report says.

The organisations point to chemicals as an area where the changes are particularly visible. High energy costs are putting pressure on north-west Europe’s chemical industry, while more chemical intermediates are being produced outside Europe. That could shift or reduce freight volumes for carriers reliant on traditional chemical flows in the region, they warn.