ECB account says all members supported September interest-rate rise

In an account published on 8 October, the European Central Bank said all Governing Council members supported raising its three key interest rates at their 9–10 September meeting in Berlin. The increase of 25 basis points took the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. The account describes that September decision, rather than announcing a new rate change. [1]

The rise came as euro area headline inflation reached 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July, according to the Eurostat flash estimate cited by the ECB. Energy price inflation rose from 10.3% to 14.3%. ECB staff projected average headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028; the forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were higher than in June. [1]

Members judged that inflation could exceed those forecasts, citing developments in the Middle East conflict and Russia’s war against Ukraine. They also saw risks to economic growth as tilted downwards. But they said the energy shock had not yet spread significantly through the wider economy: core inflation edged down to 2.4% in August from 2.5% in July, and wages had shown no material response at that stage. [1]

The Council left its next move open. Members said future decisions would depend on incoming data and be taken meeting by meeting, without signalling either a predetermined series of increases or that September’s rise would be the last. [1]