Dutch economic picture barely changes as confidence weakens

The Dutch economy’s overall picture was almost unchanged in October, with eight of 13 indicators below their long-term trends, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported. The assessment combines different economic measures and does not describe conditions equally for every household, business or region.

The CBS business-cycle indicator edged down from −0.16 in September to −0.17 in October. Confidence also weakened: consumer confidence slipped from −33 to −34, while producer confidence fell from 4.2 to 2.3. Consumers remained far more pessimistic than their 20-year average; producers were still more positive than theirs.

Other data showed activity growing. The economy expanded by 0.6% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, after growth of 0.7% in the second. A positive trade balance and the accumulation of stocks contributed most to the latest increase, according to the CBS’s initial estimate.

Industrial production was 12% higher in August than a year earlier, the largest annual rise in more than four years, and 3.3% higher than in July. Exports, household consumption and investment were also up on a year earlier. But the labour market showed strain: unemployment remained at 4.0% in September, while the number of people out of work had risen by an average of 5,000 a month over the previous three months. The number of vacancies was virtually unchanged from the previous quarter.

The October report is the last monthly economic bulletin of its kind. From November, CBS will stop updating its Business Cycle Tracer and several monthly reports, including those on household consumption, investment and goods exports. Quarterly statistics for those indicators will continue to be published as part of GDP estimates.