Trump’s New York crime warning omits sharp fall in city murders

New York City recorded 203 murders in the first nine months of 2026, down from 253 in the same period a year earlier. Police say the preliminary total is the lowest on record for those nine months, challenging Donald Trump’s description of murder and other violent crime in New York as out of control.

In a 31 October Truth Social post archived by Trump’s Truth, the president also said people and businesses were leaving for other states in “Record Numbers”. He gave no source or time period for that claim. The post urged voters to support Komatireddy, a former federal prosecutor and the Republican challenger to Democratic attorney general Letitia James, and criticised Democratic governor Kathy Hochul. New York votes on 3 November.

Trump used the same crime and departure wording in his 14 August endorsement of Komatireddy and named her again in a 22 October voting appeal.

The city figures show a mixed picture beyond murder. Robberies fell 12.2%, while rape reports rose 3.7% and felony assaults rose 0.2%. Combined reports of murder, rape, robbery and felony assault fell by about 3.7%. A quarter of rape reports concerned alleged offences in previous years, and the state broadened the legal definition of rape in 2024.

The city numbers do not cover the whole state. State records show 80,043 violent offences in 2024, up from 79,020 in 2023 and 69,910 in 2019. New York State Police changed their reporting system in 2024, improving reporting particularly of rape. In February, the state’s criminal justice agency told legislators that preliminary figures indicated overall reported crime fell about 8% in 2025, including a double-digit percentage fall in murder.

Departures from New York

Census Bureau estimates analysed by Cornell University show New York lost 137,586 more residents to other states than it gained from them between July 2024 and July 2025. That was more than the net loss of 119,231 a year earlier, but well below the 326,190 net loss in 2020–21. These figures subtract arrivals from departures; they do not count everyone who left.

The state’s total population was estimated to have risen by just 1,008 over the same year; that measure also reflects births, deaths and international migration. State tax records show the share of tax-return addresses changed to out-of-state locations fell from about 3% in 2021 to 2% in 2024. A tax return is not the same as an individual person.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded 683 businesses with a single location leaving New York in 2021, the highest outflow in its 1994–2021 series. A later table showed a net loss of 278 such firms in 2023, compared with 486 in 2021. The figures exclude companies with multiple locations and do not establish a 2026 record for all business departures.