Oil supply overtakes demand as Gulf exports recover, IEA says

ANP/Bloomberg, citing the IEA, reported that the global surplus was nearly 2 million barrels a day in October. It said the agency had also revised its September estimate from a deficit to a surplus of 600,000 barrels a day.

Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million, the IEA said. Gulf exports increased despite continuing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. Excluding Oman, they reached 18.4 million barrels a day, though that was still 26% below pre-war levels.

The agency expects the market to be in surplus for the fourth quarter of 2026 as a whole. It forecasts that demand for the year will fall by 2.7 million barrels a day to an average of 102.3 million, before recovering in 2027. It warned that attacks on shipping remained a risk to the recovery.

Observed oil inventories rose in October for the first time since June, although stocks on land continued to fall. North Sea Dated crude fell from $136 a barrel in early October to around $93 when the IEA wrote its report, but remained above pre-war levels. Prices had also fallen on hopes of a diplomatic solution to the war, ANP/Bloomberg reported.

The IEA said supplies of refined fuels, particularly diesel, remained tight. European diesel prices had fallen 11% from early October but were still 77% above their pre-war level.