Trump’s Republican optimism comes without a named poll

Donald Trump’s declaration that things are “Looking good for Republicans!” offers political confidence rather than a specific polling forecast. In a Truth Social post on 16 October 2026, the president praised pollster Matt Towery’s appearance with Sean Hannity but cited no survey, contest or vote margin. He did not link to the appearance or explain which findings informed his optimism. [1]

Towery’s earlier public remarks set out a possible Republican advantage centred on older voters. The Washington Stand reported on 15 October that, in a video it dated 12 October, he described voters aged 18–39 as “about 30 points less enthusiastic” about voting than those aged 65 and over. He also claimed older voters were backing Republicans “in droves” for the first time in three election cycles. [6]

His proposed response, however, depended on what early and postal voting showed. “We may have to adjust our weighting,” Towery said, suggesting that adjustments could move some Democratic leads of three to five points towards a tie, or put Republicans ahead. Weighting affects how much influence different groups have on a poll’s overall result; changing the assumed turnout mix can alter an estimate without voters necessarily changing their preferences. [6]

Towery also acknowledged in those remarks that expectations of a Republican wave in 2022 had proved wrong. His current argument was a scenario for how Republican prospects could improve, rather than an unconditional prediction of victory. [6]

An earlier Hannity radio episode, listed by iHeart on 13 October, discussed Towery’s belief that traditional polling repeatedly underestimates Republicans. It also promoted his new book, *The Honoring of Ignorance*. Hannity’s website advertised the book that day with a purchase link and an endorsement from the host. [3] [5]

There is an important distinction between an enthusiasm gap and a new turnout surge. The Washington Stand’s report itself cited USAFacts findings that older voters already had the highest participation. Whether Towery’s scenario produces an additional Republican advantage depends on how turnout and candidate preferences change across the electorate in individual races—not simply on older voters being more enthusiastic than younger ones. [6]