Trump threatens higher Mexico tariffs over migrant caravans

In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump called the movement of migrants an “invasion” following the US midterm elections, in which Democrats won control of Congress. He said tariffs on Mexico would be doubled immediately if it did not stop the caravans.

A group estimated at between 1,000 and 2,000 people left Tapachula in southern Mexico on 10 November, heading towards Mexico City, Texas Public Radio reported. Some migrants told news agencies that the Democrats’ election wins had given them hope of reaching the United States.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that no migrant caravan had reached the US border since January 2025. She said a caravan of about 600 people in the southern state of Chiapas had largely dispersed, and ruled out using force to break up caravans. It is unclear whether she was referring to the same group reported by Texas Public Radio.

The White House claimed that Democrats were promising to reopen the border. It cited individual migrants who hoped for help from Democrats and politicians including Representative Ayanna Pressley, who has called for the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the federal agency known as ICE.

Calls by individual politicians to abolish ICE do not establish a party-wide policy to open the border. Nor do migrants’ hopes show that the election result caused an increase in migration.

Trump’s threat comes as the US and Mexico negotiate over duties imposed on Mexican products in 2025. Mexico is seeking reductions in tariffs including a 10% duty on goods not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, according to the Associated Press. It remains unclear which duties Trump’s threat would affect or what legal authority would be used to increase them.