About 650 more prisoners expected to be released early on Tuesday

Around 650 more offenders are expected to leave prisons in England and Wales on Tuesday, in the third phase of the government’s early-release scheme. The release comes as the prison population has fallen since the scheme began, although pressure on capacity remains.

The BBC reports that at least 1,350 people were released early in the first two phases, which began on 1 October. Officials project that at least 2,500 will have been released by the end of the year. These are separate stages of a rolling programme, not totals to add together.

Tuesday’s group will include people serving sentences of up to three years and two months. They will be eligible to leave after serving no more than a third of their sentence in custody, rather than half. The cohort may include people convicted of affray, burglary and fraud, as well as some convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent or lower-level firearms offences.

More than 70 offences are excluded, including manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences, and offences carrying life terms. The phased scheme is due to continue until next June, when it will extend to some people serving sentences of more than 12 years.

The latest weekly figures cited by the BBC put the prison population at 86,982 on Monday, with space for 2,076 more people. That is about 500 more spare places than before the scheme started. Earlier reporting had outlined the expected releases and the scheme’s changing eligibility rules in a fuller account of the timetable.

Those released remain on licence and can be recalled to prison for breaching conditions. The BBC says the government has not yet published a recall rate for people released under this scheme. Its latest figures show 12,338 people were returned to prison for breaches between April and June, 12% more than a year earlier; about a fifth of recalls were for a new offence, according to rehabilitation experts cited by the BBC.

The government says it is investing £700m in probation, including funding to recruit 1,300 additional officers and introduce AI tools. The probation union Napo has said the releases are putting its members under strain. A ballot on possible strike action was due to report on Friday.