Democrat leads in South Texas poll, but former Trump voters largely stick with Republican

A poll in Texas’s 15th congressional district puts Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz before the 3 November midterm election. Donald Trump won the area within the district’s current boundaries by 18 percentage points in 2024, making the contest a test of whether Republicans can hold on to their recent gains in South Texas.

The survey, conducted on 13–16 October by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, found 51% of likely voters backing Pulido, 44% backing De La Cruz and 5% undecided. It questioned 650 people and gives a margin of error of 3.84 percentage points for the full sample. Among Latino likely voters in the district, it found Pulido ahead by 57% to 40%. Those figures concern one congressional seat, not Hispanic voters across Texas.

The BBC spoke to Mario Guerrero, a South Texas construction industry leader who said he had voted for Trump three times but planned to vote for a Democrat in November. He supported Trump’s promise to address illegal border crossings, he said, but objects to the way immigration enforcement has been carried out. Father Roy Snipes, a priest near the border, also criticised detentions and deportations in remarks reported by the BBC. Other voters it interviewed raised the cost of living.

Guerrero’s intended switch is not the only response among former Trump supporters. In the district poll, 86% of likely voters who said they backed Trump in 2024 intended to vote for De La Cruz; 8% favoured Pulido. That comparison is between a past presidential vote and a proposed congressional vote, rather than a measure of how individual voters’ views have changed over time. The Associated Press also spoke in Edinburg to one voter who intended to back De La Cruz again and another, a former Republican presidential voter, who remained undecided.

De La Cruz told The Texas Tribune that she favours a secure border, but said enforcement should target criminals and cartels rather than families navigating the immigration system. Pulido has put economic concerns at the centre of his campaign. In the district survey, 42% chose either inflation and higher prices or the economy as the most important issue in deciding their congressional vote, compared with 24% who chose immigration or border security. Whether those concerns turn Pulido’s polling lead into a victory will be decided by voters on 3 November.