Trump’s 99% Republican approval claim conflicts with recent polls

In a Truth Social post on 29 October, Trump claimed that his approval rating within the Republican Party was 99% and that his rallies were drawing the biggest midterm crowds “by a factor of five times”. He did not name a poll, identify the rallies he was comparing or explain how the crowds were counted.

The post promoted a planned rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, for Republican senator Darline Graham, who faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the 3 November election. Graham was appointed in July after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. The Associated Press has described the race as unexpectedly competitive in a Republican stronghold.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from 22 to 26 October found that 75% of Republican respondents approved of Trump’s performance as president, while 24% disapproved. Its sample included 490 Republicans, with a stated margin of error of 4.5 percentage points for that group.

A separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, conducted on 19 and 20 October, found 82% approval and 17% disapproval among Republican registered voters. The polls cover different groups, but both show substantial Republican support well short of the near unanimity Trump claimed. Among all adults in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 32% approved and 66% disapproved.

Trump has previously cited a similar figure. On 10 October, he told reporters that a CNN chart showed his approval at 99%. Four days later, at a Montana rally, he played a clip he introduced as CNN footage. Its speaker described 99% as the share of the “MAGA GOP” vote Trump received in the 2024 presidential election, and put his later approval within that group at 98%. A past vote and current job approval are different measures, and MAGA Republicans are not the entire party. It is not clear whether the clip was the basis for Trump’s latest claim.

The crowd comparison is also unclear. At a 2018 midterm rally for Ted Cruz in Houston, Trump staff estimated that about 16,000 people were inside the Toyota Center. They estimated another 10,000 to 15,000 were outside; Houston’s police chief put the outside crowd at about 3,000.

Trump also held rallies at the same Youngstown, Ohio, arena in 2022 and 2026. Reports described unfilled or closed seating at both, but did not establish comparable headcounts. Without consistent counts of current and earlier crowds, those examples neither establish nor rule out a fivefold increase.