US economy grows under Trump, but prices rise and hiring slows

The US economy is growing as President Donald Trump campaigns ahead of the midterm congressional elections, but rising inflation and slower hiring complicate his claims about jobs, prices and incomes. [1]

Output rose at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Consumer spending, investment and exports all contributed. That figure describes growth from April to June, rather than the pace of the economy in October. [2]

Prices present a less favourable picture for the president. The consumer price index was 3.7% higher in September than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s monthly rise in the overall index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The index records price changes, not how much of them was caused by tariffs or the war with Iran. [3]

Americans have continued to spend despite higher fuel costs, the Associated Press reports, although some of the increase in retail spending reflects higher prices. It also reports that employers added 29,000 jobs in September, down from a revised 133,000 in August. Unemployment was 4.2% — still relatively low despite the weaker hiring figure. [5]

Household incomes and household costs tell different parts of the story. The BBC reports that inflation-adjusted median household income rose 2.6% in 2025 to $87,460. For 2026, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that changes to taxes and health-insurance support, together with inflation above an earlier forecast, will leave the middle fifth of households facing extra costs equal to 2.7% of their income compared with its alternative scenario; for the bottom fifth, it estimates 5.7%. Those are modelled comparisons, not measured falls in those households’ incomes. [1] [4]

The distinction matters when judging the effect of Trump’s policies. ITEP counts the gap between observed inflation and an earlier Congressional Budget Office forecast in its cost estimate. That gap does not, by itself, establish how much of the increase was caused by tariffs, immigration policy or the Iran war. The measured picture remains one of economic growth and low unemployment alongside faster price rises and subdued hiring.