Talarico’s narrow lead puts Texas Senate race in play for Democrats

Democrat James Talarico was narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in several polls before Election Day in Texas, giving Democrats a chance to challenge the state’s long record of Republican victories in statewide races. But the surveys varied, and the contest remained uncertain.

A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,215 likely voters, conducted from 27 October to 1 November, put Talarico on 50% and Paxton on 43%. YouGov found a closer 51%-47% Talarico lead, while a Fox News poll was tied at 49% each. RealClearPolling’s average of surveys from 15 October to 1 November put Talarico ahead by 2.6 points.

The margins of error in the individual polls were about two to four percentage points, and other surveys also showed a tie or a slight Paxton lead. The polling pointed to a competitive race, not a settled outcome.

The Senate contest has national stakes: control of the chamber could shape Congress next year. For Texas Democrats, a victory would also end a decades-long losing streak in statewide elections. The BBC reported that Democrats had not won a Texas statewide race in more than three decades, while Talarico was seeking the state’s Senate seat for the party for the first time since 1988.

Talarico, a 37-year-old state legislator and former teacher, faced Paxton, the state’s attorney general, after defeating Dallas congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. Paxton had won the Republican nomination over incumbent senator John Cornyn.

The campaign drew heavy spending and high-profile attention. The BBC reported that total spending had surpassed half a billion dollars, with substantial outside-group support for Paxton and more than $140m raised by Talarico’s campaign. Donald Trump campaigned alongside Paxton in Texas in the final days.

The BBC described voter concerns about living costs, immigration enforcement and data-centre construction as part of a difficult political climate for Republicans. It also noted that Paxton’s past controversies had left him with critics, including within his own party. Those factors may have helped make the race competitive, but they do not determine how voters would cast their ballots.

Talarico’s lead remained close to the margin of error in many polls. A Democratic win could encourage more candidates to run in Texas, Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told the BBC, but the result was still uncertain as voters went to the polls.