DNB says AI’s economic impact in the Netherlands remains uncertain

The Dutch central bank says artificial intelligence could raise productivity and prosperity in the Netherlands, but its economic effects will depend on how businesses put the technology to work and whether successful uses spread. The impact on jobs and inflation remains uncertain, according to a new analysis by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).

DNB estimates that AI could speed up work on at least half the tasks in a quarter of Dutch workers’ occupations. Using a lower threshold — at least 40% of tasks — the figure rises to half of workers. The bank stresses that this measure indicates where AI may assist or automate tasks; it does not predict how many jobs will be created or lost.

AI could take over some tasks, help employees do more, and enable new products and services. Whether employment rises or falls will depend in part on the choices employers make, DNB says. For many workers, the content of their jobs is likely to change, making training and, in some cases, a move to another role or sector important.

The bank says the Netherlands has advantages including strong digital infrastructure, a highly educated workforce and many knowledge-intensive services. But adoption is uneven: larger firms and digitally oriented sectors are ahead, while smaller businesses use AI less often. DNB says smaller firms could benefit from software and cloud services that give them access to specialist capabilities without requiring them to build their own models or infrastructure.

Realising those gains requires companies to adapt work processes, train staff and use time saved by AI to improve quality, develop products or increase output. DNB says employers should involve workers early in decisions about AI and skills, and that agreements on retraining and changing roles can be made through collective bargaining.

The bank also says firms need reliable, affordable access to AI models, data and computing power, as well as the ability to switch providers. It argues that successful businesses need room to grow so that productive uses of AI can spread through the economy. Any additional national rules for AI should be weighed carefully against the functioning of the European single market, DNB says.

AI’s effect on inflation could go in either direction. Investment in chips, data centres, electricity networks and other infrastructure may increase demand for materials, energy and workers, pushing costs up. Over time, however, higher productivity and cheaper production could ease price pressures. DNB says the outcome depends on how quickly investment and production expand.