ECB staff raise inflation and growth forecasts for 2027

ECB staff have raised their inflation forecast for the euro area for 2027 by 0.2 percentage points compared with June. Expected economic growth for that year has also been revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points. This is shown in presentation material from ECB Executive Board member Philip R. Lane for a lecture at the University of Lausanne on 24 September. [1]

For 2026, the inflation forecast remained unchanged and the growth forecast rose by 0.1 percentage points. For 2028, expected inflation was raised by 0.1 percentage points, while the growth forecast remained unchanged. These are revisions to forecasts, not measured additional growth or price increases.

Energy above the forecast path

Meanwhile, oil and gas futures prices as at 22 September for both 2027 and 2028 are above the energy price path underlying the September forecast. Market prices for future delivery therefore point to more expensive energy than assumed in that forecast. They do not fix future prices. [1]

The comparison also has a limitation: the energy path in the forecast uses average market prices over ten working days up to and including 19 August. The latest futures curve is not averaged in the same way.

Within the September forecast, expectations for energy and food diverge. Compared with June, the energy inflation forecast rose by 0.9 percentage points for 2026 and by 2.3 percentage points for 2027. By contrast, the food inflation forecast was lowered by 0.7 percentage points for both years. These are revisions within individual price categories, not contributions that can be added directly to total inflation. [1]