England need 68-point win and Tonga favour to reach World Cup semi-finals

England need to beat Papua New Guinea by at least 68 points and then hope Tonga defeat Samoa to reach the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals after an 82-0 win over France revived their campaign.

A smaller victory could still be enough, but only if Tonga beat Samoa by a margin that lifts England above Samoa on points difference. England’s figure is currently +64, compared with Samoa’s +132. If Samoa win, England are out because they lost to Tonga; a draw between Tonga and Samoa would also eliminate them.

England play Papua New Guinea in Wollongong on Friday, 30 October. Tonga face Samoa in Sydney two days later. The top two teams in the combined six-team Group B-C advance to the semi-finals.

The equation follows England’s 30-12 opening defeat by Tonga and their emphatic response against France. England scored 14 tries in the 82-0 victory, surpassing Samoa’s earlier margin over France, but remain behind them on points difference after Samoa also beat Papua New Guinea heavily.

Coach Brian McDermott said England had known they needed a big win against France. “Knowing we had to win big — and we have had candid conversations about that this week — we have done that without getting hot. Everything was measured and planned,” he said.

England captain George Williams said the team had “given ourselves half a chance”. They have never finished outside the top four at a Rugby League World Cup, according to BBC Sport.

The route to the semi-finals is shaped by an unusual format. England play the three teams drawn in Pool C, while Samoa play the three from Pool B; the two pools are combined into one table, so England and Samoa do not meet. The structure followed France’s withdrawal as host of the planned 2025 tournament over financial difficulties. The competition was reduced from 16 teams to 10, with Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea stepping in as co-hosts.

England’s opening defeat and the two wins they now need to keep their semi-final hopes alive are set out in the earlier account of their loss to Tonga. Their 82-0 victory over France kept those hopes alive, but the final group match against Papua New Guinea will determine whether they can reach the required points difference.