El Niño offers no clear answer on UK snow this winter

Forecasts cited by BBC Weather suggest significant cold or snow is unlikely in the UK in the near future. That does not settle the question for the rest of winter: presenter Ben Rich says El Niño could shift the odds towards colder, snowier weather later in the season, but the outcome is uncertain. For the rest of autumn, he says, El Niño instead increases the chance of wet, mild and potentially stormy conditions. [1]

One possible route to a colder spell involves the polar vortex, a band of high-altitude winds around the North Pole. Rich explains that a disruption can, over days or weeks, affect the jet stream and allow colder winds to reach the UK. But a disrupted vortex does not always change weather at ground level, and cold spells can occur without one. He says evidence for a late-winter link between El Niño, vortex disruption and UK snow is mixed. [1]

Past winters show why El Niño is no guarantee of snow. Rich points to the cold El Niño winter of 2009–10 and the unusually warm El Niño winter of 2006–07. The 2018 ‘Beast from the East’, meanwhile, occurred during La Niña. [1]