Seven OPEC+ countries hold November targets amid uneven Gulf export recovery

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed on 4 October to keep their required oil production for November at September’s level. The same seven countries had already retained that level for October. The decision sets targets; it does not show how much oil they will produce. [1] [6]

Actual production has fallen short of targets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that Saudi Arabia produced 5.97 million barrels of crude a day in August, against an implied target of 10.42 million. Those are August figures, not a measurement of output at the time of the November decision. [2]

More recent export figures show why the supply picture is mixed. Kpler estimates that at least 16.5 million barrels a day of crude and condensate left the Gulf region from 1 to 28 September, matching its pre-war average when Iran is excluded. Including Iran, exports reached 91% of the pre-war level. About 9.9 million barrels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz; other shipments bypassed it through Saudi and UAE pipelines. Crude flows through the strait itself remained more than a quarter below pre-war levels. [3]

Recovered crude exports do not mean recovered fuel supplies. Gulf net exports of diesel and gasoil were just over a quarter of pre-war levels in August, according to the IEA. On 2 October, its executive director, Fatih Birol, said refined-product flows remained severely constrained even though Middle Eastern crude exports had recovered significantly. [2] [5]

The G7 has announced a release of 100 million barrels from reserves over four months to help cushion price shocks. The IEA said about 325 million barrels of a 400-million-barrel stock action agreed in March had already been released by 2 October. The G7 linked its latest timetable to those earlier commitments, so the 100 million barrels cannot simply be counted as wholly additional to the March pledge. [4]