White House forecasts rapid fuel-price fall, but latest US readings are mixed

The White House said on 25 October that US petrol and diesel prices would “soon drop rapidly”, crediting President Donald Trump’s energy measures and deals. The latest national pump-price readings give a more mixed picture: petrol had edged down, while diesel had risen. Both readings predate the forecast.

The US Energy Information Administration recorded regular petrol at $4.284 per US gallon on 19 October, down from $4.331 a week earlier but well above the $3.019 recorded at roughly the same time last year. Diesel stood at $6.276 per gallon, up from $6.179 the previous week. Those figures cannot settle what prices will do after 25 October or how much any individual measure might affect them.

The White House’s round-up combines measures already taken with agreements and projects at different stages. Its claim that a Venezuelan oil deal has secured 65 billion barrels for the US refers to an agreement it announced in August, not 65 billion barrels of oil already produced or added to reserves on US territory. According to the administration’s earlier account, a private company received concessions for 17 Venezuelan fields, while the US government gained a 35% stake in its parent company and rights to buy a share of future output. The White House calls the fields’ estimated reserves proven; oil specialists interviewed by the Associated Press have disputed that figure and offered substantially lower estimates for what could be classified as proven in the near term.

The administration also describes a $54 billion deal with South Korea and Taiwan to build an Alaska natural-gas pipeline. South Korea’s published plan said the project was being examined subject to commercial viability and domestic legal requirements. Developer Glenfarne said the investment structure and steps towards a final investment decision still had to be completed. Taiwan, according to AP’s account of its economic affairs ministry’s statement, was considering an investment of up to $4.4 billion, with terms still to be negotiated. If the project proceeds on schedule, Taiwan expects gas supplies from 2032 at the earliest. It is not a source of additional US petrol in the near term.

On fuel stocks, the White House says Trump secured commitments from other countries to release more than 130 million barrels of diesel. A 15 October International Energy Agency statement describes about 330 million barrels of oil and petroleum products already released under a collective action, with around 100 million still to come, including plans to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible. That does not establish how the White House arrived at its separate diesel figure or whether the commitments overlap.

Supply conditions remain difficult, particularly for diesel. The IEA estimated that global diesel and gasoil exports in September were about 700,000 barrels a day below their level a year earlier and forecast a gasoil shortfall against demand in the final quarter of 2026. US refineries ran at more than 95% of capacity on average from May to September, the EIA reported, but total refining capacity was 4% lower than in 2019. High use of existing plants is not the same as an expansion of capacity, or a guarantee of lower prices at the pump.