Swinney says independence ‘stars are aligning’ after SNP’s fifth Holyrood term

John Swinney is expected to argue that the prospects for Scottish independence are improving in his keynote address to the SNP conference in Aberdeen, renewing his push for another referendum after the party secured a record fifth term in government at the May Holyrood election [1].

The first minister is due to describe 2026 as a turning point in Scotland’s “journey towards statehood” and say that “the stars are aligning” for independence. He is also expected to claim that the unionist parties at Westminster are weaker than ever.

The SNP won the election but fell short of the overall majority Swinney had set as a target for pressing the case for a second referendum. He is expected to say that losing would have set back the independence cause “decades”, while insisting there is “no turning back” [1].

His speech follows a summit in Cardiff last month, where the nationalist first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a non-binding agreement saying Westminster had no right to “block democracy”. Swinney says the fact that all three first ministers support their nations’ right to self-determination shows the political landscape is shifting [1].

But the route to another vote remains blocked by the UK government. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said a second Scottish referendum is “off limits”, although he has offered to work with Swinney on deeper devolution. Successive UK governments have opposed another referendum since Scotland voted against independence by 55% to 45% in 2014. The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that a further vote would require the UK government’s agreement [1].