News Made Clear · Loading…
The Dutch military intelligence chief says Russia shows no current intent to fight Nato soon after the Ukraine war, but warns that, under the most favourable circumstances for Russia, its armed forces could be ready for a small-scale conflict with Nato in slightly less than a year after the war ends.
What has changed? · 01/10/2026, 08:42 UTC
Review information is loading.
Peter Reesink, director of the Netherlands’ military intelligence service, told a briefing in the Dutch House of Representatives that the service currently saw no Russian intention to start a conflict with Nato soon after the war in Ukraine ends, ANP reported on 30 September. [1]
Reesink drew a distinction between intention and capability. He warned that Russia’s armed forces could be ready for a small-scale conflict with Nato in slightly less than a year *after the war ends*. He said Russia could move that quickly only under the most favourable circumstances for it, including continued military production and a willingness to fight. He also noted signs of war fatigue in Russia. [1]
Reesink said military escalation was not the most likely outcome. He considered a continued phase between war and peace more likely, while describing escalation as the most dangerous possibility. [1]
1 listed sources · explore evidence, limitations and provenance.
Sign in to give this article a thumbs up or down.
Private test discussion. Comments are readers’ views and are not yet automatically fact-checked. Editing is available for 60 seconds after posting.
Sign in with a confirmed reader account and choose a username to read comments and participate.
Sorting applies to top-level comments; replies remain oldest first. New comments and likes can change the order. Refresh for the current ranking.
Loading comments…