Inflation is higher than when Trump returned, despite his claim it is ‘way down’

Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on 30 October that inflation was “way down” under him and that income for people and companies was “way up”. He did not specify the measures or dates behind either claim.

The annual consumer price inflation rate was 3.7% in September 2026, compared with 3.0% in January 2025, the month Trump returned to office. It had risen from 3.4% in August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figures contradict a claim that the rate has fallen over his current term.

Inflation was much lower than its 9.1% peak in June 2022 under Joe Biden, but most of that decline had occurred before Trump returned. It was also lower in September than the 4.2% recorded in May 2026, before rising again. Trump did not say which period he had in mind.

A lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly, not necessarily falling. The overall consumer price index rose about 5.4% between January 2025 and September 2026, on a seasonally adjusted basis. In a separate post earlier in October, Trump claimed he was bringing prices down.

Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr has said earlier interest-rate rises and easing supply constraints helped reduce inflation. He also identified higher tariffs and the Middle East conflict’s effect on energy prices as sources of later pressure.

A mixed picture for income

There is evidence of a genuine improvement in household income in 2025. The Census Bureau estimated that median income reached $87,460, up 2.6% from 2024 after adjusting for inflation. That was a record for the measure, which dates back to 1967.

The gain was not evident across the whole income distribution: income at the 10th percentile did not differ significantly from 2024. The annual figure also does not show what happened to household incomes in September 2026.

Average hourly pay on private non-farm payrolls rose from $35.84 in January 2025 to $37.81 in September 2026. But after adjusting for inflation, it was virtually unchanged to the nearest cent. It fell by 0.7% in the year to September; the September figures are preliminary.

Company profits have risen. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that corporate profits from current production increased from $3.736 trillion in 2024 to $4.025 trillion in 2025, about 7.7% in current dollars. Profits rose again between the first and second quarters of 2026. The figures are national aggregates, not the results of every company.

Trump’s post came four days before the 3 November midterm elections and a day after figures showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.4% in the third quarter. The White House credited the president’s agenda for the growth, though the figures alone do not establish the effect of individual policies.

The latest monthly income report showed total personal income rose 0.2% from August to September, while disposable personal income fell 0.3% after tax and inflation. These are national totals, and one month does not establish the trend for the whole term.