Australia face 288-run chase in Newlands Test decider

Australia need 288 runs to beat South Africa in the deciding Test at Newlands after Wiaan Mulder and Ryan Rickelton lifted the hosts from a precarious position on day four, setting up a final-day chase that could decide both the match and the series.

South Africa were 40-4 at the start of the day, but Rickelton made 101 and Mulder 115 as they reached 387 all out. Their 288-run target is the second-highest fourth-innings chase in the 62 Tests played at Newlands, according to BBC Sport. Australia’s 334-6 against South Africa in 2002 remains the record.

The hosts are given a 54% chance of victory by WinViz, a prediction tool used by cricket analysts CricViz. But Australia have a precedent to draw on: they chased 331 at Newlands in 2002, winning by four wickets, with Ricky Ponting scoring an unbeaten century.

The pitch may make the task harder. BBC Sport said it turned more sharply in the final session on day four, and Nathan Lyon bowled Simon Harmer with a ball that turned back. Harmer had taken four wickets in Australia’s first innings, including those of Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis and Alex Carey.

There are reasons to watch Head closely. He scored 123 from 83 balls in Australia’s successful 205-run chase against England in the first Ashes Test last year. Australia also have recent success chasing substantial fourth-innings targets: since 2023, Pat Cummins’s side have completed chases of 282 and 279, as well as winning in Perth last year.

The winner of the Test will finish the series top of the International Cricket Council’s Test rankings. South Africa levelled the series in Gqeberha with an innings-and-31-run win, setting up the Cape Town decider.